- The index regains composure and bounces off lows near 103.30.
- The buying interest in the risk complex takes a breather.
- Investors expect the Fed to pause its hiking cycle next June.
The greenback, when gauged by the USD Index (DXY), regains its smile and manages to rebound from recent weekly lows near 103.30 on Friday.
USD Index looks at risk trends
The index picks up some upside traction following Thursday’s strong retracement to the area of 2-week lows around 103.30.
The bullish attempt in the dollar comes on the back of some profit taking in the risk complex in light of the recent strong advance, while expectations of a Fed impasse at the June event remain firm for the time being.
Moving forward, the index could move into a consolidative phase ahead of the release of crucial US inflation figures next week, just before the FOMC meeting.
There are no scheduled releases on the US docket for Friday.
What to look for around USD
The index seems to have met some initial contention around the 103.30 region so far this week.
In the meantime, bets of another 25 bps at the Fed’s next gathering in June reversed course in spite of the steady resilience of key US fundamentals (employment and prices, mainly), denting the recent rally in the dollar and favouring a further decline in US yields.
Bolstering a pause by the Fed instead appears to be the extra tightening of credit conditions in response to uncertainty surrounding the US banking sector.
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Persistent debate over a soft/hard landing of the US economy. Terminal Interest rate near the peak vs. speculation of rate cuts in late 2023/early 2024. Fed’s pivot. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China trade conflict.
USD Index relevant levels
Now, the index is gaining 0.07% at 103.38 and the breakout of 104.69 (monthly high May 31) would open the door to 105.45 (200-day SMA) and then 105.88 (2023 high March 8). On the other hand, the next support comes at 103.29 (monthly low June 8) seconded by 102.99 (100-day SMA) and finally 102.50 (55-day SMA).
